Price Predictor for Ratings an Form Analysis
Price Predictor is the original horse racing ratings part of
Bet Selector first released in 1987. It combines all the various pieces of form for upcoming races to
predict the outcome of the race. This is where Bet Selector and in particular
its recently revised Price Predictor
horse racing ratings come into play.
The Price Predictor module (available via the pull down Run menu) displays horses past form in both a database-style format
(via the LOAD DATA TABLES button) and a web-style format (via the View Extra
Form button). These formats make
it is easy to compare horse statistics and past form lines but that's not all
as also included are horse racing ratings
for horses past performances so you can numerically compare horses against one
another even if they have never raced together before!
The Price Predictor part of Bet Selector not only predicts the finishing order of
horses in a race but also calculates what it thinks is a "fair"
price for each runner. Some punters are happy to simply bet the
top prediction regardless but the professional approach is to
only back a horse if the price available for it is equal to or
better than what the program says is a "fair" price (referred to as an
overlay). Backing a horse only when you can get a horse's "fair" price or
better can also be applied to multiple
horses in the same race (if so it is usually best to limit horses under
consideration to the top 5 or 6 rated and/or to those rated at
$10 or less).
Also important is selecting the right races and less
experienced punters are advised to start with lower risk races.
These are best identified by confining yourself to Saturday
Sydney and Melbourne races with above average quality horses.
The quality or class of the horses in a race is collectively
expressed by the avBASE figure listed alongside the race name
within the program (50 and above is good, 60 plus is absolute
top - eg Melb Cup. Cox Plate etc). Races with large numbers of first uppers and
races for 2 year old horses are best excluded.
Note: These support pages concentrate on how to use the features
in the program rather than how to bet. To learn more about the punting side
of things you can check out our
Articles. On the system side of things you can get professionally
designed systems for Bet Selector from
Main Price Predictor Window
Once one or more meetings have been imported into the
program, Price Predictor lists all meetings
available for use in a scrollable list box on the left. A large text box on the
right contains basic field information for the selected meeting with more functionality and information obtainable via a
number of buttons to the lower left and to the right as follows:
- LOAD DATA TABLES: Clicking this button (or double
mouse clicking the meeting in the list box) allows you to load
in all the field data and past form for a meeting and view
it in a tabular format (eg with statistics and data for each
horse lined up in columns for easy comparison). This option
also provides you with the ability to edit individual horse
- View Extra Form: This button opens HTML reports in your
web browser similar to those displayed at
- View Bookie Prices: This button opens the meeting in the
Sportsbet web site.
- ViewCSV File: This button opens a Comma
Separated Values (CSV) file in Excel (or
whichever program your operating system has associated with
these file types). It contains information you can’t get
elsewhere in the program’s data files like distance plus or minus ten percent win percentage
(DD±10%) and the percentage of times the horse has finished
in the first five placings (F5). It also includes the Better
Ratings points (BR$) and the three sets of rated prices
(RP1, RP2 and RP3).
- Re-Name: This button lets you
rename the selected meeting (eg on the rare occasions the
TAB is using a different meeting name and you want them to
- Re-Date: This button lets you
change the date of the selected meeting (eg on the rare occasion
a meeting changes from one day to say the next).
- Delete: This button deletes the
selected meeting or meetings (note you an use mouse/keyboard shortcuts to
highlight multiple meetings for deletion).
- View Races in Spreadsheet: This button opens a copy of
the meeting's race data file in a spreadsheet.
- View Fields in Spreadsheet: This button opens a copy of
the meeting's horse data file in a spreadsheet.
- View Form in Spreadsheet: This button opens a copy of
the meeting's form data file in a spreadsheet.
- Bestform Data Table: This button opens a copy of the
meeting's Bestform exclusive data file in a spreadsheet.
- Adjust Market: Clicking this checkbox will adjust the early
market price (from Bestform) for scratchings.
- Get Bookie Prices: This button updates a meeting
Sportsbet fixed prices (only available in Bet Selector
- Get TAB Info: This button updates a meeting with
scratchings and TAB results using Tattsbet's XML service
(note that if over the rated odds, TAB prices are
highlighted in blue).
- Fields Order: Radio buttons "TAB" and "Ratings" allow you to
toggle between fields lists in TAB number order and Rated price order.
The following buttons across the top of the window change what is
displayed in the large list box (note bold button text is used to denote
which view is active):
- Prices: This button displays a field list with the
program's 3 sets of rated prices alongside AAP's early market prices and 100
- Ratings: This button displays a field list with
each horse's past 3 start ratings, peak and base ratings plus other
the following Horse Window section for column explanations
as most columns in this report are also on the Horse Window
(except %x100 which refers to the predicted percentage times
100, eg 550 for 55.0%).
- Stats: This button displays a statistical report with
win and place percentages for career, distance, track, firm, good, soft, heavy.
- InRun: This button displays an in-running report showing
the in-running positions from each of a horses last 5 starts.
- Place %: This button displays Predicted Place percentages
based on the program's predicted win chances.
- Top 6: This button displays the top 6 predictions
for each race and shows rated prices and predicted margins.
Finally at the bottom of the window are buttons for saving fields to text
files, viewing form in text format and for printing reports from the large list
The Horse Window via the LOAD DATA TABLES button displays every horse in the race listed down
the screen and details for each horse listed across the screen
(extra details are available on the right hand side by clicking
TABs for additional panes of information). Data presented for
each horse is as follows:
- #: TAB Number
- E: Emergency indicator (E)
- Form: Last 4 start finishing positions
- Horse: Horse name
- Bp: Barrier position
- Wt: Weight to be carried
- Len: Predicted margin in lengths
- Price: Predicted (rated) price
- R: Runs back from spell
- St3: Third last start rating
- St2: Second last start rating
- St1: Last start rating
- Pk: Peak rating over similar distance
- Base: Base rating (av of last 3 &/or pk)
- Comment: Form pattern description
- Pos: Predicted finishing position
- Days: Days since last start
- IN: Days when predicted to be in form
- OUT: Days when predicted to be out of form
- WF: Winning Form (Y or N)
- IM: Improver bonus (Y) or penalty (N)
- D: Distance Okay ability (Y or N)
- F: First Up Okay ability (Y or N)
- LBD: Last Best Distance (of last 3 runs)
- Ddist: Change in distance from last start
- Dwt: Change in weight from last start
- Gdsh?: Y/N for Good, dead, slow, heavy
- Jockey: Jockey for upcoming race
- Allow: Jockey allowance
- JRat: Jockey Rating (defaults to 5)
- Trainer: Trainer of horse
- Stables: Where horse is trained
- Prizemoney: Horses career prizemoney
- Age: Age of horse
- Col.: Colour of horse
- Sex: Sex of horse
- Ctry: Country horse is from
- Starts: Number of career starts
- Wins: Number of wins
- 2nds: Number of second placings
- 3rds: Number of third placings
- Track: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for track
- Dist.: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for distance
- 1st Up: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds first up
- Fast: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for fast
- Firm: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for firm
- Good: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for good
- Dead: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for dead
- Slow: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for slow
- Soft: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for soft
- Heavy: Starts, wins, 2nds & 3rds for heavy
- Dist. wins: No. of wins at each distance
- Breeding: Sire - Dam (and country of each)
Details of horse's past runs can be found at the bottom
of the Horse Window but for even more information you can click the "View
Past Form/Edit Ratings" button on the left of
the horse window. Details on the Form/Edit dialogue that pops up can
be found below.
The Form Window displays detailed horse information in the
top half of the screen, a sub-section of items you can edit in
the middle of the screen and past form information in the bottom
half of the screen. Items that you can edit (eg to modify
a horse's predicted status) are as follows (note that after changing anything
you should click the "Update" pushbutton to force prediction recalculations):
- IMP: Improver setting (Y for bonus, N for penalty)
- Base: Base rating
- PKD: Peak distance rating
- LBD: Last Best Distance
- DOK: Distance Okay (Y for bonus, N for penalty)
- FOK: First Up Okay (Y for bonus, N for penalty)
- WF: Winning Form setting
- Wet: Y/N indicators for GDSH/FGSH ability
- IN: Days from last start to when predicted to be in form
- OUT: Days from last start to when predicted to be out of form
- R1: Last start rating
- R2: Second last start rating
- R3: Third last start rating
- Jrt: Jockey Rating (0 for best thru 8 for worst)
- All: Jockey Allowance
- Comment: Text comment of up to 40 characters
If you wish to quickly alter a horses rated prediction there
are +1 and -1 buttons near the top right of the window that add
and subtract one from the selected horses base rating and
instantly recalculate the rated prices and rated positions. Note
also the Prev Race and Next Race button in the top right of the
window for easy race navigation.
At the bottom of the top half of the Form Window you will find the
program's bonuses and penalties for each horse. These are as follows:
- Form: This is the bonus/penalty for form improvement. It provides a
measure of whether a horses recent ratings are going up or down.
- Cond: This is the bonus/penalty for condition. If a horse has not
raced for more than 28 days then COND is a negative number that increases by
around 3 kilos for every extra month it has been unraced. The effect of this
penalty is reduced by a 2 kilo bonus if the horse has won a recent barrier trial
(as per Bestform). Furthermore the penalty can also be reduced if Improver=Y or
if FOK=Y (first up ok) in a sprint race.
- Cons: This is the bonus/penalty for consistency. It in the range -1 to
+3 and is based predominantly on strike rate.
- Cls: This is the bonus/penalty for class. It measures the
difference between the highest class the horse has raced in and the class of the
- Dist: This is the bonus/penalty for distance ability and is positive
if the horse has won at or near the upcoming distance or is given Distance Ok=Y.
It is negative if the horse has never won or finished close at or near the
- Trck: This is the bonus/penalty for track ability. Normally a bonus
unless the horse has had more than a couple runs at the track for no wins or
- Barr: This is the bonus/penalty for barrier position. Ranges from a
2.5 bonus for really good barriers through to -2.5 for really bad barriers but
the exact spread varies with individual tracks.
- Age: This is the bonus/penalty for age. It is a bonus of around 4 for
younger horses through to 3 for 6yos and 1 for older horses. Can be slightly
higher if the horse has had less than 6 career starts.
- Sex: This is the bonus/penalty for sex. It is set to +1 unless the
horse is a mare in which case it is set to between -1 and -2 (more negative if
its last start was more than a month ago and less negative if its last start
finish was within 2 lengths). Mares that won their last start get +1.
- Jock: This is the jockey rating that should range from 0 or -1 for
the best jockeys through to -8 for the worst jockey (if you don't apply your own
jockey ratings the default is -5).
In regards to the above bonus and penalties, each has a default weighting of
one but these weightings can be adjusted in Bet Selector Ultimate via the Setup
option off the pull down FILE menu where you can change any individual weighting
to zero or some other number. For example if you don't like Bet Selector's new
class bonus/penalties you could zero them out by changing the weighting to zero.
But you could also change the weighting to 0.5 to get half the bonus/penalty or
to 1.5 to get 50% more! Same for all the other bonuses and penalties!
In the bottom half of the Form Window, each past run
available is listed down the screen and details for each past
run are listed across the screen. Note if you have access to a large number of past starts (eg
more than 16), you may have to scroll down to see them. Items
included for past starts are as follows:
- CIS: The rating
- Fin: Finishing position
- Str: Number of starters in race
- Marg: Beaten or winning margin
- Dist: Distance
- G: Going
- Date: Date
- Track: Track name
- Class: Class
- Age: Age restriction
- Sex: Sex restriction
- Event: Race name
- Wgt: Weight carried
- All: Allowance
- Lim: Limit weight
- Jockey: Jockey
- BP: Barrier position
- Time: Winners time
- Sdist: Sectional distance
- Stime: Sectional time
- Sd: Settling position
- Tw: 1200m position
- Ei: 800m position
- Fo: 400m position
- OP: Opening price
- MP: Middle price
- SP: Starting price
- Prize: Prizemoney ($000)
- Won: Prizemoney won ($000)
Note the following buttons on the form window:
- View Extra Form Below: This find more past starts for a
horse and displays them in the list below.
- Extra Form in Spreadsheet: This opens the form runs
including extra ones in a spreadsheet.
- Graph: This produces a ratings graph of past runs for the selected horse.
Each past run is represented by a bar which contains the actual
rating inside the top of the bar and the margin inside the bottom of the bar.
Below the bar is the date of the run and below that the distance of the run.
Good track runs are coloured green and firm track runs yellow. Wet tracks employ
a mixture of blue and green colours with the amount of blue (think of blue as
meaning water) increasing as the condition goes from good through to heavy.
Letups and spells are represented by a gap between
runs on the graph.
- Find Pkd: Clicking this button moves the highlight bar
to the past run which has the peak distance rating (if any) for the selected
- Steward Reports: Clicking this button displays
Steward Report comments from past runs for the selected horse (if using form
from Bestform). If a steward report is available for a horse you will see an
asterisk alongside the horses rated price in the field list above the button
(a plus sign is used if there is a stewards report for the horses last run).
Note: Below the past runs at the very bottom of the form
window are F1 for the finishing position of winner (or 2nd to
winner), Other1 for the horse name of winner (or 2nd to winner)
and Wgt1 for the Weight of winner (or 2nd to winner) - and
similarly for second and third.