System Analyser, MyCalc and Expert Mode
On this page:
Analyser Settings
| Analyser Output
| Analyser Criteria
| Analyser Data File
| Staking Analyser
| MyCalc
| MyReport
| Expert Mode
Bet Selector's System Analyser module is part of System Selector. It works by tabulating the performance for individual system
rule criteria. For example System Analyser will show you the number of
bets, wins, strike rate, return, profit etc for every individual
barrier position, field size, distance and so on.
While mainly used to analyse system rules over past meetings, System Analyser can
also be used to analyse staking plans plus jockeys, trainers and breeding performance.
System Analyser Settings
System Analyser is available via the "Analyse
System" button in System Selector. System Analyser first presents you
with a settings dialogue where you can select what type of analysis and which criteria you want analysed.
First up you will see radio buttons as follows:
- System Rules Analyser: This is the default option for
analysing form items to help you decide upon system rules
- Jockey/Trainer Analyser: This option if for specialised
jockey and trainer analysis.
- Win Staking Analyser: This option is for analysing win
staking.
- Place Staking Analyser: This option is for analysing
place staking.
Next (for the System Rules Analyser) are the following buttons to help
you pick which form items are to be analyses:
- Select All Criteria: This simply selects all criteria
- De-Select All Criteria: This de-selects all criteria
- Select Meeting Criteria: This selects meeting related criteria only
- Select Race Criteria: This selects race (and meeting) related criteria only
- Save Criteria: This saves criteria selections for current system
- Use Saved Criteria: This loads saved criteria selections for current system
- Save Criteria to TEMP: This saves criteria selections in a temporary file for use in another system
- Load Criteria from TEMP: This loads criteria selections from a temporary file (created via above option)
- Add/Select Report Items: This adds items from a Report
to the list for analysis (and selects them).
- Select Report Items: This selects items from a Report
to the list for analysis.
Note the last two options refer to variables and calculations from a Report
you have attached to the system. Note also there is a "Analyse BSP Only"
checkbox that allows you to quickly create an analysis report with profits and
losses based on BSP prices (after commissions). To save time the normal win,
place and exotic reports are not produced but this option only works if you have
a report attached to your system that includes the BSP variable and you have BSP
prices loaded via the pull down FILE menu.
System Analyser Output
Three output files are automatically produces, one for the win, one for place
and one for exotics (but only with meeting and race based criteria). A fourth
based on net BSP prices rather than fixed win prices is also included. Following are the descriptions of the data columns in the System Analyser
reports:
- Bets: The number of bets for each criteria value
- Wins: The number of wins for each criteria value
- $Return: The $ return for each criteria value
- Outs: The longest run of outs for each criteria value
- % S.R.: The percentage strike rate (SR) for each criteria value
- $Up: The $ profit as it accumulates for each criteria value down the page
- $Down: The $ profit as it accumulates for each criteria value up the page
- %Up: The % profit as it accumulates for each criteria value down the page
- %Down: The % profit as it accumulates for each criteria value up the page
- $Profit: The $ profit for each criteria value
- %POT: The percentage profit on turnover (POT) for each criteria value
- I.V.: The Impact Value (IV) for each criteria value
Following the above columns are two horizontal bar charts -
the first for percentage strike rate and the second for
percentage profit (only positive values capped at 100% are
graphed). Of the above columns the only one that requires
further explanation is the Impact Value which are numbers
centered around 1 where less than 1 indicates the strike rate is
less than the average for all horses in the test and more than 1
indicates the strike rate is greater than the average. (They are
better than strike rates for comparison purposes because strike
rates by themselves are influenced by field sizes and individual
horse win chances).
The above columns are for the default win/place analysis. If you select
the Jockey/Trainer analysis you will get the above columns less the Up and
Down columns and with a Rate column in place of he I.V. column (it contains
a rating following the traditional scale of 0 for the best through to 8 for
the worst).
Going down the page you will see performance for individual criteria
values corresponding to most of the System Selector rules. The best way to
illustrate this is with a sample output from System Analyser which you can
view at
System Analyser Sample
System Analyser Criteria
The above sample is just an extract from the full report and only shows a
handfull of criteria. The full list of criteria analysed is as follows:
- Year - Level Stakes
- Year - Betting to Rated Prices
- Year - Betting to Tote Prices
- Month - Level Stakes
- Day of Week
- Venue Code
- Times of Duplication
- Race Distance
- Field Size
- Race Class
- Number of First Uppers
- Number of Last Start Winners
- Min No. of Starts all horses in race
- Max No. of Starts all horses in race
- Race Number
- Reverse Race Number
- Average API of all horses in race
- Race Prizemoney $000
- Track Condition Code
- Track Condition Number
- Sex of Horse
- Age of Horse
- Career Starts
- Career Wins
- Win Percentage
- Place Percentage
- Dist Win Percentage
- Dist Place Percentage
- Track Win Percentage
- Track Place Percentage
- Going Win Percentage
- Going Place Percentage
- Barrier Position
- TAB Number
- Weight Carried
- Weight Over Lowest Weight
- Weight Below Top Weight
- Jockey Allowance
- Days to Last Start
- Days to 2nd Last Start
- Days to 3rd Last Start
- Runs Back from Spell
- Base Rating
- Peak Rating
- Last Start Rating
- Base Rating Rank
- Peak Rating Rank
- Last Start Rating Rank
- Last Start Finish Position
- 2nd Last Start Finish Posn
- 3rd Last Start Finish Posn
- 4th Last Start Finish Posn
- Last Start SP
- 2nd Last Start SP
- 3rd Last Start SP
- Change in Distance
- Change in Weight
- Distance Ability
- Won at Track
- Metrop Run Last Start
- Saturday Last Start
- Favourite Last Start
- Trained at Track
- Winning Form Indicator
- Improver Indicator
- Last Start Margin
- 2nd Last Start Margin
- 3rd Last Start Margin
- Last Start Turn Position
- 2nd Last Start Turn Posn
- 3rd Last Start Turn Posn
- Last Start Settling Posn
- Prizemoney Change $000
- Average Prizemoney Index
- Average Prizemoney Rank
- Win Percentage Rank
- Place Percentage Rank
- Predicted Position Rank
- Predicted Margin
- Predicted $ Price
- Better Ratings
- Better Ratings Rank
- Plus Ratings Rank
- Better Ratings Price
- Plus Ratings Price
- Starting Price Rank
- SP Dividend
- SP Div of Favourite
- MyCalc Rank
- MyCalc Value
- MyCalc Gap Difference
- MyCalc Gap Percentage
- Track Name
- Class of Race
- Age Restriction of Race
- Sex Restriction of Race
- Last Start Class
- Last Start Age Restriction
- Last Start Sex Restriction
- Last Start Track Condition
- Fav AAP Market Price
- Fav Adjusted AAP Market Price
- AAP Market Price
- Adjusted AAP Market Price
- AAP Market Price Rank
- Handicapper Rating
- Handicapper Rating Rank
- Birth Week
- AAP 100 Point Dry Rating
- AAP 100 Point Dry Rating Rank
- AAP 100 Point Wet Rating
- AAP 100 Point Wet Rating Rank
Note that in the latest Pro 3 version of Bet Selector you can (by using
Reports) System Analyse virtually anything you like from the form downloads
as well as your own calculations (ie you are not limited to the above list).
System Analyser Data File
The "Analyse Last Test" button in System Selector opens System Analyser as
discussed above but
there is still a button in the System Analyser module for opening the spreadsheet
file directly.
Spreadsheet files in comma delimited format are created every
time you run System Selector over past meetings. The
comma-delimited format (with each column of data separated from
the next by a comma) has been chosen as it is the most common
format asked for and the format most compatible with all
spreadsheet and database programs. It will load into programs
like Excel with the data automatically separated into columns
within the spreadsheet - so you can sort the data by any column
you like and even apply calculations to individual columns.
A explanation of the spreadsheet columns is as follows:
- DATE: Race Date
- DOW: Day of Week (sun =1 thru sat =7)
- JUMP: Jump Time
- TRACK: Track Name
- TCD: 3 letter Track Code
- C: 1 letter venue code for track
- DIST: Race Distance
- G: Track Condition
- GN: Track Condition Number
- PRIZEMONEY: Race Prizemoney in $000
- CLASS: Race Class
- RAGE: Race Age Restriction
- REST: Race Sex Restriction
- LIMW: Limit Weight
- AB: avBase race class figure
- FS: Field size
- FU: No of first uppers in race
- LW: No of last start winners in race
- MS: Min no of starts for horses in race
- RN: Race Number
- TN: TAB Number
- 4: 4th last start finishing position
- 3: 3rd last start finishing position
- 2: 2nd last start finishing position
- 1: last start finishing position
- FORM: Last 4 start position string
- HORSE: Horse Name
- BP: Barrier Position
- WGHT: Allocated Weight
- STS: Horse Starts
- PL1: Career Wins
- PL2: Career Seconds
- PL3: Career Thirds
- WIN%: Win Percentage
- PLC%: Place Percentage
- DWP: Distance Win Percentage
- DPP: Distance Place Percentage
- TWP: Track Win Percentage
- TPP: Track Place Percentage
- GWP: Going Win Percentage
- GPP: Going Place Percentage
- API: Av Prizemoney Index
- DAYS: Days to Last Start
- DAY2: Days to 2nd Last Start
- DAY3: Days to 3rd Last Start
- RB: Runs Back from spell
- AGE: Horse Age
- SEX: Horse Sex
- $R: Prizemoney Rank
- WR: Win% Rank
- PR: Place% Rank
- $DIFF: Race Prizemoney Difference
- DDIST: Race Distance Difference
- DDLBD: Difference relative to LBD
- D: Distance Okay indicator
- TC: This Course (really means track)
- MET: Metrop Last Start
- SAT: Saturday Last Start
- FAV: Favourite Last Start
- TAT: Trained at Track
- IMP: Y or N for improver pattern bonus
- WNF: Y or N for winning form
- IN: Days when predicted to be in form
- OUT: Days when predicted to be out of form
- DWGT: Change in weight
- L3ODDS: 3rd Last Start Price
- L2ODDS: 2nd Last Start Price
- LSODDS: Last Start Price
- RODDS$: Rated odds in dividend format
- RLEN: Rated Length
- RP: Rated position ranking
- BRR: Better Ratings Ranking
- PRR: Plus Ratings Ranking
- WINDIV: Win Dividend
- PLCDIV: Place Dividend
- SPDIV: Starting Price Divs
- SPR: Starting Price Ranking
- FDIV: Starting Price of Favourite
- FIN: Finishing Position
- MG-1: Margin Last Start
- MG-2: Margin 2nd Last Start
- MG-3: Margin 3rd Last Start
- MG-4: Margin 4th Last Start
- ST-1: Last Start Rating
- ST-2: 2nd Last Start Rating
- ST-3: 3rd Last Start Rating
- PEAK: Peak Distance Rating
- BASE: Base Rating
- G-1: Going at last start
- G-2: Going at 2nd last start
- G-3: Going at 3rd last start
- T-1: Turn position last start
- T-2: Turn position 2nd last start
- T-3: Turn position 3rd last start
- S-1: Settling position last start
- S-2: Settling position 2nd last start
- S-3: Settling position 3rd last start
- LFS: Last start Field Size
- TDS: This Distance Starts
- TDW: This Distance Wins
- TD2: This Distance 2nds
- TD3: This Distance 3rds
- TCS: This Track Starts
- TCW: This Track Wins
- TC2: This Track 2nds
- TC3: This Track 3rds
- FUS: First Up Starts
- FUW: First Up Wins
- FU2: First Up 2nds
- FU3: First Up 3rds
- FGS: Fast/Firm Going Starts
- FGW: Fast/Firm Going Wins
- FG2: Fast/Firm Going 2nds
- FG3: Fast/Firm Going 3rds
- GGS: Good Going Starts
- GGW: Good Going Wins
- GG2: Good Going 2nds
- GG3: Good Going 3rds
- DGS: Dead Going Starts
- DGW: Dead Going Wins
- DG2: Dead Going 2nds
- DG3: Dead Going 3rds
- SGS: Slow/Soft Going Starts
- SGW: Slow/Soft Going Wins
- SG2: Slow/Soft Going 2nds
- SG3: Slow/Soft Going 3rds
- HGS: Heavy Going Starts
- HGW: Heavy Going Wins
- HG2: Heavy Going 2nds
- HG3: Heavy Going 3rds
- COMMENT: Program (or user) comment
- JOCKEY: Jockey Name
- ALL: Jockey Allowance
- JRT: Jockey Rating (defaults to 5)
- WOLW: Weight over Lowest Weight
- WBTW: Weight below Top Weight
- TRAINER: Trainer Name
- SYSTEMNAME: System Name
- LISTNAME: List name for grouping systems
- BRT: Better Ratings rating
- PRT: Plus Ratings rating
- BODDS: Better Ratings rated prices
- PODDS: Plus Ratings rated prices
- MYCALC: MyCalc value
- CR: MyCalc ranking
- GAP: MyCalc gap position
- GAPDIFF: MyCalc gap difference
- GAPPROP: MyCalc gap percentage
- DUP: Duplication counter
- TF: Last Barrier Trial finishing position
- TDST: Last Barrier Trial Distance
- LTRACK: Last track name abbreviation
- LR: Last race number
- LCLAS: Last race class
- LA: Last race age restriction
- LSEX: Last race sex restriction
- LTIME: Last race winner's time
- STIME: Last race winner's sectional time
- LALL: Last race jockey allowance
- MPDIV: Early Market Price div
- MPDIV2: MPDIV adjusted for scratchings
- MPR: Early Market Price Ranking
- HCP: Official Handicapper Rating
- HCR: Official Handicapper Rating Ranking
- BWK: Birth Week (1-52 from 1 August)
- BSR: Base rating ranking
- PKR: Peak rating ranking
- LSR: Last start rating ranking
- LAY: Reflects the fixed risk in lay betting (-1 for
winners, inversely proportional to the price for non-winners)
- ADP: AAP 100 point rating for dry tracks
- ADR: AAP rating ranking for dry tracks
- AWP: AAP 100 point rating for wet tracks
- AWR: AAP ranking for wet tracks
- MXS: Max no. starts for horses in race
- XR: Reverse race number
- APIAV: Average API of all horses in race
- MPF1: Fav price from AAP early market
- MPF2: Fav price from AAP adjusted market
- BSTRING: Betstream style betstring
- QNBET: Quinella bet amount
- EXBET: Exacta bet amount
- TTBET: Trifecta bet amount
- FFBET: First Four bet amount
- QNDIV: Quinella dividend
- EXDIV: Exacta dividend
- TTDIV: Trifecta dividend
- FFDIV: First Four dividend
Note that if you have a report attached to your system and have
added/selected those items for analysis then they will also be included.
Staking Analyser
If you select the Win or Place Staking Analyser radio buttons then you get
special Staking Analyser output in a CSV file that loads into
your spreadsheet program and reports performance of your system
bets based on the application of various staking plans. The
option to run win or place staking analysis is made via radio
button selections at the point where you would normally run
System Analyser.
Each Staking Plan is illustrated by two columns of data -the
bet size "BET"
and the bank size "BANK". Column headings are prefaced
by letters (eg a, b, c etc) to indicate the actual Staking Plan
being applied. A legend can be found at the end of the
spreadsheet explaining the names of the staking plans and more
details on them can be found below:
- Level Stakes: The bet size aBet is a
constant $100 and the bank aBANK starts at $5000.
- Bank Percentage: The bet size bBet
is 2% of the bank so bets in the bBET column will increase
as the bank in the bBANK column increases and will decrease
as the bank in the bBANK column decreases.
- Lose Chasing: The bet size cBET starts
at 2% of the bank but will decrease as the bank in the
bBANK column increases and will increase as the bank in
the bBANK column decreases (the inverse of the second example).
- Retirement Staking Plan: From Grandstand
Publishing, the bet size is in column dBET and bank size in
column dBANK.
- Pyramid Divisor Staking Plan: Based on the
Pyramid or D'Alembert plan whereby the bet size eBET is
increased by one unit after a loss and decreased by one unit
after a win (uses the divisor to reduce the bet increase and
decreases for systems with higher average divs)
- Square Root Staking Plan: The bet size
fBET is simply increased by the square root of the bank
increase. If the bank fBANK goes below its original level
then the bet stays at its original level.
At the bottom of the spreadsheet you will find absolute $
profit, percentage profit on opening bank (POB) and
percentage profit on turnover (POT) for each plan.
The Staking Analyser lets you run either win or place staking analysis
and also allows you to alter the divisor and select the initial bank
percentage from between 0.5% to 5%. Note that the divisor default is set to
twice the average odds which the program determines from your system test
run.
MyCalc
The MyCalc module is
used when you want to include your own calculations in System
Selector.
To use the MyCalc module just select it via the pull
down RUN menu and click the "New" button in the bottom left
hand corner. This create a new calculation to which you
can give a name using the box at the bottom right near
the "Save As" button, then enter the form items you wish
to use by either typing them in or simply selecting them from the drop down and clicking
the "Insert" button immediately above the drop down.
The drop down lists for Race, Horse data and Last
Start form data give you descriptions of the various
items available. When inserted into the formula box,
they are prefixed by R for race fields, H: for horse
fields and F: for last start form fields (if you are
running Bet Selector Ultimate Professional then you also
have access to second, third and fourth last start data
items which use the prefixes F2, F3 and F4). A final drop
down allows you to insert special variables from System
Selector like past start margins and turn positions etc
(note these work when using the calc in System Selector
but not in MyCalc test mode).
Once you have entered a single form item into the
large formulae text box in the middle of the screen you
can add additional items with operators like +, -, * or
/ between them. Such operators can be typed in manually
or inserted by clicking on the respective operator
buttons at the top of the screen (same goes for left
and right parentheses).
The following example should help you understand the
formula format. This example takes a horse's prizemoney
earnings and divides them by the number of placings a horse has had:
H:STAKES/(H:WINS+H:PL2+H:PL3)
The first, second and third placings must be added
together and enclosed in parentheses for the division to work.
To save the formula you create you must click the
"Save As" button on the middle right of the screen
making sure you type a name into the adjacent text box.
Once saved, the formulae name will appear in the left
hand list box of saved formulae. These can be opened by
simply clicking on the names in the list box and they
can also be deleted by using the "Delete" button under
the formulae name list box.
For more examples including how to use special function called
MyPts for allocating points for form items check out the
MyCalc blog page.
When testing systems in System Selector there are special rules on
the system rules window that give you full control over MyCalc results
as follows:
- Calc Name: A drop down list form which you can now link a
specific MyCalc formula by name directly into a system
- Calc Rank: A min-max range for the MyCalc ranking
- Calc Value: A min-max range for the MyCalc value
- Gap Position No: Lets you select the gap to test (ge 1 for
between rank 1and 2, 2 for between rank 2 and 3 etc)
- Gap Diff: A min-max range for the gap in absolute value terms
- Gap Percentage: A min-max range for the gap in percentage terms
An important example of using these new rules is where you link a system to
your MyCalc calculation for Selection Poll points, set the min and max ranges
for calc value to 1 and 1 to pick the top MyCalc horse, and then set a minimum
of 2 points for the gap between the top and second top horse (gap position
number 1). An example on exactly how to do this can be found at
Selection
Poll System
Note MyCalc rankings assume your MyCalc returns positive numbers with
the best horse having the highest number. So if you want to test rankings or gaps between
something like rated prices then you will have to engineer a MyCalc that returns
higher scores for more favoured horses.
MyReport
MyReport uses the same drop down list items as MyCalc
but instead of combining them together in a calculation
it concatenates them into a string for reporting
purposes. This way you can create reports that are
different to the standard ones within the program.
To access MyReport you simply change the radio button from MyCalc to
MyReport and then list the items you want for each column on separate
lines one after the other. For example you can list horse name, jockey
and trainer side by side in a report by simply saving the following:
H:HORSE
H:TRAINER
H:JOCKEY
Finally you should note that MyReport also allows you to enter calculations
as long as they can be written one a single line.
Expert Mode
Expert Mode is a more advance system testing environment
where you have access to a lot more rules - in fact virtually every form
item that is available from the data files. It is only available in Bet
Selector Ultimate Plus and above.
Both MyCalc and Expert Mode work by accessing detailed drop down lists of
data as follows.
To use a data item, all you need do is select the one you want
from the drop down lists in the MyCalc/Expert Mode editor and click the
Insert button above the drop down list. This places the relevant variable
name in the large edit box. When finished composing you system/calc you
just save your code giving it a name so it can be referenced for future use.
Detailed help on using Expert Mode can be found on our
Expert Mode Blog.