Exotics Betting
The following articles are chapter extracts from Peter Bent's
out-of-print books Form Analysis and Exotics Betting and
The Thoroughbred and Exotics Betting and describe the
authors approach to using the Tote Pro part of Bet Selector for
exotics betting.
For information on Peter Bent's latest book What The Trainer
Saw go to
www.eyecatcherbooks.com
Picking Winners
All winning horses enjoy three essential elements. If one or
more of these ingredients are lacking, the horse is unlikely to
win. Each winning horse will have enjoyed a relatively trouble
free run, will be one of the better quality horses in this race
and will be at its peak physical fitness. You must endeavour to
select the horse which displays all three characteristics.
Interference Factor. While you cannot control or
predict what may happen in the running of a race, there are
strategies you can adopt to minimize the risk of losing as a
result of interference, or by virtue of the jockey affording the
horse a poor run. Put simply, your winning strategy should
include the selection of a number of horses as potential
winners. In this way, you diminish the risk posed by a jockey
error or interference. The argument against this is the
reduction in net profit. Betting one unit on a horse paying
$4.00 allows a three hundred percent net profit. If you back two
horses with one unit on each for the same $4.00 return, net
profit falls to one hundred percent.
The larger dividends available from exotics betting can, to a
large degree, indemnify us from this reduced profitability.
While selecting one horse only for first is undoubtedly the most
profitable option when trifecta betting, the strike rate is
around 25%, leading to a sometimes lengthy string of “outs”.
Selecting three horses for first place, however, enables a
healthy strike rate of 60% plus, while the bigger trifecta
payouts ensures a substantial net profit. If selecting two or
four horses for first, either the strike rate or net profit is
substantially lower. In the balance between strike rate and
profitability, selecting three horses for first furnishes the
most equitable result.
Quality Factor. Horses which get a good run and are in
peak form will not win if they are racing above their class. No
matter how fit, their best will not be enough against a primed,
better quality animal.
When Bet Selector rates a race field, it ranks them in order
based on the quality of performance at their past three starts.
Thus, the best quality horse is ranked number one, with those of
lesser quality ranked progressively lower. You can use this
occurrence to ensure you are picking only the best quality
horses in a race as our potential winner. After correct
analysis, the top ranked Bet Selector horse wins around thirty
percent of all races. Although it is the best horse, it may lose
because it is simply not fit enough at this stage of its
preparation, or because it strikes interference or the distance
or conditions do not suit. As well, horses are living creatures
with a mind of their own and on some days they may simply not
feel like racing. Any one of these situations provides a winning
opportunity for a slightly less qualified animal.
To increase our strike rate, you must expand our search for
the winner beyond the top ranked horse. Here, you should know
that a staggering eighty percent of all winners are found in the
top five ranked Bet Selector horses. In addition, a
significant number of second place horses are also found in this
contingent. It seems obvious, then, that you should concentrate
on these top five horses to extract the three horses most likely
to salute. Our target will be the fittest of these five best
qualified horses.
Fitness Factor. The best quality horses which are at
their peak will win most races. To assist you here, Bet Selector
displays the current peak form status of each horse on both the
Race Field screen and on the horse form guide. You are primarily
interested in four headings. They are; DAYS – period between the
last and next start, IN – days after last start (or before if
preceded by a minus) when the horse hits its peak. OUT – days
after last start (or before if a negative number) when horse
loses form. WF – winning form status. “Y”, “+” or “!” signal
horse in form, while a blank or “-“ means it is not in peak form
today. After checking the winning form status of the top five
ranked horses to ensure the Bet Selector summation is correct,
you can begin to use this data to select your winner.
Start by immediately dismissing all horses in the top five
not in peak form from further consideration. If there are more
than three horses remaining in contention after this step, you
must consider the peak form period itself. This peak phase is
not a plateau. Rather, after its initial zenith, form gradually
tapers off over the ensuing days or weeks. Inspection of the
form cycle will determine how close the horse is to its initial
peak and allow us to place the horse in a class of peak fitness,
dependant upon its proximity to that point. A summation of the
seven Classes of Fitness follows.
- Class A. If a horse peaks within 2 days before
its race start, it will be at the pinnacle of its peak form
phase and is the most likely winner. This Class can occur in
the first two form cycles and is not affected by distance.
However, if track conditions are totally unsuitable or it is
in its third cycle, it should be relegated to Class G.
- Class B. Habitual first up winners are strong
contenders if resuming today. Aside from DAYS, the symbol
“999” under both IN and OUT signals F/UP OK? and Improver:
should be inspected. “Y” for both these boxes makes this
horse a Class B prospect. If the Improver: box is N or
blank, the horse will not win.
- Class C. This class is reserved for second or
third up horses that won the equivalent race at a past prep.
Not only should any rating this prep be similar to past
ratings, it must race over the same distance today as at the
identical second or third run last prep. However, days in
work demonstrate this horse may peak three or more days
prior to this start. If it peaks within two days of this
run, upgrade to Class A.
- Class D. Winners, or horses finishing within half
a length, over the same distance as today at their last
start are the subject of Class D. These horses must be in
the first form retention phase of their first cycle.
otherwise they will qualify for other classes. They are also
demoted to class E if the last start track conditions were
different to today.
- Class E. Horses that have peaked at one or more
of their recent starts and are still in their first form
retention phase are the subject of Class E. If they peaked
prior to the last start there IN form number will show the
days before the last start when the horse initially peaked
and the OUT figure will indicate when the first form
retention phase ends. In addition, it includes horses that
peaked only at their last start (IN 0) over a different
distance or conditions than those prevailing today.
Encompassed here are horses that have already exceeded past
form retention (WF +) but may still be in form.
- Class F. Horses resuming from a spell or let up
that did not do so well at their past first up run (F/UP OK?
blank or N) but will improve here (Improver: Y) have some
hope of winning when resuming. If you do not believe a first
up horse can repeat a past win or improve on a previous
first up performance, it will not win and so Improver: must
not contain the symbol “Y”.
- Class G. Incorporates horses that have not peaked
at one of their recent starts or who are now in their second
or third form cycle. In both cases, the horse will reach
peak form three or more days prior to today’s race and may
already be tapering off. These horses are not at their best
but they have some chance.
Once you have labelled the top five in form horses, simply
pick the three highest classed horses as your winning
selections. For example, if four of the top five are in peak
form and fall into classes A, B, C and D, you would select the
three horses in classes A, B and C as your first place picks.
The Bet Selector ranking of these animals is irrelevant. It is
sufficient that they are anywhere within the top five ranked
horses.
Where three horses fall into clearly defined higher classes,
selection is simple and self-evident. Very often, though, two or
more of the lower class horses will inhabit the same class. To
discriminate between horses occupying identical classes, you
must look to the OUT number.
As I have already said, from the time a horse gains peak form
it will hold its zenith for a short while and then begin to
slowly taper off. Form deterioration is usually gradual and over
a time frame that varies from horse to horse. The exception is
where a horse becomes ill or injured, or where a hard run
stresses the animal and knocks it off its feed, leading to a
rapid form slump. Assuming this has not happened, it is
reasonable to presume that the horse which will hold form for
the greatest number of days after this race is not as far
advanced in its form taper and will be the fitter animal on the
day.
As the OUT number represents the number of days after the
last start when a horse will lose form, deducting DAYS from the
OUT number will tell us how many days of peak form remain after
today’s race. The horse with the most number of days remaining
will be the better animal and should be selected.
If there are less than three in-form horses within the Bet
Selector top five rankings, you might consider selecting one or
more of the best ranked out-of-formers to complete your set of
likely winners. If anything should go amiss with the peaking
horses in the run, a good quality horse nearing its peak may
steal the prize.
Picking The Exotics Field
The objective of the trifecta field selection strategy is to
create a trifecta field roughly half the size of the race field.
There is a sound reason for this selection strategy. Limiting
the size of the trifecta field reduces your outlay and small
outlays are the key to profitable exotics betting.
As stated earlier, a significant number of horses filling the
first two places are found in the Bet Selector top five ranked
horses. This top five now forms the nucleus of all exotic
selections. Some of these horses will be stood out for first,
second and third, while the remainder will be stood out for
second and third only. In addition to these top five horses, a
number of others may be stood out for third place only.
To set a trifecta field, Bet Selector considers all horses
with predicted margins within 3.3 lengths of the top ranked
horse and if needed up to two lengths greater than the fifth
ranked Bet Selector horse. The maximum number of selected horses
should be five for races with no more than nine starters, eight
if no more than twelve and nine if there are thirteen starters
or more. These caps are introduced in an effort to keep outlays
manageable.
If Bet Selector picks too many horses, you must try to reduce
the number of selections. First, if the top rated horse is in
peak form (WF Y), you can reset the predicted margins by adding
1.5kg. to this Net Rating. If there are still too many
selections, you can pare back to our cap by removing those third
place only standouts with the widest margins or you can reduce
the number of first place picks from three to two (this should
be done when two first standouts are two or more classes above
other candidates).
While Bet Selector stands out the top five ranked horses for
second and third with additional horses for third place only,
all first place picks must be done principally by the punter.
Earlier I outlined how first place horses are selected from the
top five. Your first place picks can now be entered by ticking
the Standout checkboxes on the top left of the Tote Pro
dialogue.
When there are six or more horses with a margin under 2
lengths, be wary. If the top rated horse is in winning form, add
1.5kg. to its Net Rating in order to expand the predicted
margins. However, if the top rated horse is not in form, abandon
the race. These races are wide open, with only a ten percent
strike rate.
Finally, if the top rated horse is in winning form and is
rated 1/1 or shorter in the TAB pre-post market, select that
horse alone for first. The strike rate for these horses is very
high and you can take advantage of this by drastically reducing
our trifectas bet. This allows us to either have a smaller
outlay, or more money on each trifecta to combat the often lower
dividends.
Once you have entered your exotics betting
selections in the Standout box, you are ready to set your odds
market. You are free to use your own market or TAB dividends but
I prefer the Bet Selector market as it is simple to use and
updates immediately with scratchings.
Let me say here there are many misconceptions about the
trifecta market and the part odds play in calculating the
eventual dividend. First of all, the published prices for all
horses are the win odds only. The second place odds would be
different to the win odds and the third place odds different
again. Bet Selector recognises this and, behind the scenes,
creates three different sets of odds for each position when
calculating the true odds of each trifecta combination. This
gives a more accurate estimation of the real chance of any given
trifecta.
The calculated odds of a trifecta occuring bears little or no
resemblance to the actual TAB dividend. Dividends are not based
on win markets. They are simply the result of the trifecta pool,
less the TAB percentage, divided by the number of winners. As a
rule, the larger the pool the bigger the dividend. In the
Melbourne Cup, where there is a multi-million dollar trifecta
pool, the dividend is usually in the thousands even when
favoured horses get up. If the same race was run on a mid-week
country track the dividend would be a mere few hundred. The odds
haven’t changed, but the size of the trifecta pool has. Put
simply, it is impossible to estimate the TAB dividend from a win
market.
There is some correlation. You know that if horses sporting
short win prices dominate the placings the resulting dividend
will be smaller than if long priced horses are predominant. Much
more than this, though, cannot be said. This inability to
accurately predict trifecta dividends is also the reason
comparative price betting, made popular amongst win bettors by
Don Scott, does not work when exotics betting.
Once you have decided on the win market you will use as your
Base Odds, you are ready to set your Correlated Market. This
Market has been designed specifically for trifecta betting to
eliminate unlikely trifectas from our betting menu. It will be
explained in full in the next chapter. After you have set the
Correlated Market, quit the Standout/Comparative Price screen
and click on Betting Values.
When standouts and Correlated Markets have been entered, you
can set your betting values. This encompasses the desired
takeout, minimum and maximum dividend range and betting unit
value. Setting these exotics betting values is the next step after
standouts in our outlay reduction strategy.
- Trifecta Takeout. At the top of the Tote Pro
dialogue is the trifecta takeout figure. This is the amount,
in theory, that will be returned to the punter if a bet is
successful. The takeout determines the number of units bet
on each trifecta. For example, if the takeout was one
thousand dollars, ten dollars would be bet on a trifecta
predicted to pay $100, two dollars on a $500 chance and one
dollar on any trifecta paying possibly more than that.
However, it is extremely difficult to accurately predict the
actual TAB dividend, so it does not pay to allow the takeout
to nominate the number of units bet on each trifecta. This
is why, when using the auto setting, the takeout is reduced
from 1000 to 120. This ensures that only trifectas with very
low predicted odds receive more than one unit. Hence,
outlays are not bloated by unecessary large bets on
trifectas paying more or less than the predicted dividend.
Large outlays created by the takeout actually reduce net
profit.
- Min Div and Max Div Bounds. The specific odds
range where you might look for the winning trifecta can be
entered by the punter or by Bet Selector in the minimum and
maximum dividend boxes. For example, you may decide to
concentrate your efforts on trifectas in the 0 to 100/1 odds
range. The punter would enter “0” in the minimum box and
“100” in the maximum. All trifectas with odds greater than
100/1 would now be eliminated. While this method of betting
drastically reduces outlays and can be very profitable, it
also produces a long string of “outs”. Bet Selector sets
dividend bounds based upon the price of the top ranked first
place selection and the longest priced trifecta combination.
It is important that if your win market changes these
dividend bounds are re-set. On occasions, you may find too
many trifectas eliminated by the minimum or maximum dividend
bound. This usually happens with an odds on horse. If there
are 4 or more trifectas eliminated here, manually adjust the
dividend bounds. I prefer not to eliminate trifectas on the
basis of their supposed odds. I much prefer to use
Correlated Markets (next chapter) to eliminate unlikely
trifectas.
- Bet Multiplier. This regulates the dollar value
of the betting unit. The default setting is one (1), which
invests one dollar in each unit bet. Entering two (2) will
invest two dollars in each unit and so on. This is by far
the most effective way of increasing the dollar return while
maintaining the percentage net profit. By comparison, while
increasing the takeout figure does enlarge the dollar
investment on certain trifectas, the percentage profit is
reduced as a result. For this reason, augmenting the dollar
unit value is by far the most effective method of expanding
profits.
With your exotics betting values entered, you are ready to use the
Correlated Market to eradicate unlikely trifectas from your bevy
of combinations.
The Correlated Market
After standouts, the Correlated Market is the single most
productive tool for limiting exotics betting outlays. When used in
conjunction with the new mathematics employed by Bet Selector,
Correlated Markets become very easy to use and devastatingly
effective. Put simply, the Correlated Market eliminates those
trifectas that are unlikely to occur, given the most probable
finishing position of each horse in that trifecta. Using the
Correlated Market gives Bet Selector the opportunity to
eliminate many trifectas that would otherwise be included when
betting.
So how does the Correlated Market work? To answer that, you
must first consider the history of Comparative price win
betting, made popular by Don Scott in the early 'eighties. Don
compiled all factors affecting a horse's winning chances in a
race and produced what he called his rated or true odds. He then
inspected the prices on offer from the bookmaker. Comparing
these two markets, he eliminated a horse from betting if the
bookmakers’, or Comparative price, was less than his true odds.
He introduced the terms “overlay” and “underlay” to describe
these conditions. This form of value betting proved extremely
profitable.
The process of comparing the price on offer with your true
odds and dismissing “underlays” does not work when trifecta
betting. Unlike win betting, you cannot accurately predict what
most trifecta dividends will be. While you do know the rated (or
true) odds of a trifecta, you have no price on offer to compare
it with. Hence, it is very difficult to despatch trifectas on
the basis of so called poor value. Any attempt to do so will
result in the elimination of some trifectas paying much more
than expected. You must, therefore, engineer our own comparative
trifecta market which will allow Bet Selector to eliminate those
trifectas with a price less than the true odds.
While you do not know the eventual dividend, there are some
things about a trifecta you do know. You know, for example, the
likely finishing position of each horse you have selected as a
placegetter. You have already nominated some horses for first,
second and third, others for second and third and still others
for third place only. You can now refine this process by
removing those trifectas where the specific combination of
standouts is unlikely to occur. For example, a short priced
first pick will most likely finish first or second, but if a
long priced first pick wins, then it is more likely to finish
second than third. Thus, you can begin to remove those trifectas
where one or more of the horses are in an unlikely finishing
position.
To remove those trifectas least likely to happen, you must
first enable Bet Selector to formulate a list of trifectas from
the most likely to occur to the least likely. To facilitate this
process, Bet Selector requires two odds markets. The first is
the BASE, or true, odds of each horse as calculated by Bet
Selector , re-framed to one hundred percent. This is compared to
a second market, called the Corresponding Odds.
The Corresponding Odds market is manufactured from the Base
odds. As first place picks are the most likely to finish first
or second, Corresponding prices are greater than the Base price.
Horses stood out for second or third are more likely to finish
third than second, so their Corresponding odds are reduced. As
third place only horses cannot improve on that position, their
price is retained without change in the new market. Once the
Corresponding Odds have been so engineered, Bet Selector will
list all trifectas in order of priority. This list is
constructed from the standout positions, the Base and
Corresponding odds, all of which formulate the Correlated
Market.
To demonstrate how a list is compiled, consider the three
horses you have selected as likely winners. Bet Selector boosts
the Base price of all these horses by ten cents to form the
Corresponding market. When you raise their price by ten cents,
you are increasing the price by 5% at $2.00,but only 0.5% at
$20.00. This tells Bet Selector that the horse at $2.00 is more
likely to win than the $20.00 chance. Bet Selector now uses the
win market to re-calculate the Base and Corresponding price for
the second and third position. Our $2.00win chance may be a
$5.00 chance in the second place market and a long priced $20
for third. Corresponding prices will be ten cents more. Again,
the differential between the Base and Corresponding price will
signal the likelihood of each placing. Using these win and place
odds, Bet Selector now calculates the Base and Corresponding
odds of each trifecta. The trifecta with the biggest
differential between these two markets is the most likely to
occur, while the smallest differential is the least likely. If
the Corresponding Odds are less than the Base price, the
trifecta is scratched from betting. In this way, a list of
trifectas, from the most likely to occur to the least likely, is
constructed.
By incrementally reducing the Corresponding odds of the two
top five 2nd place standouts, you lower the Corresponding odds
of all trifectas sporting these horses in the second or third
position. As Corresponding odds are further reduced, more and
more trifectas will fall below the Base odds and be eliminated.
To do this, open the Corresponding Odds dialogue box on the
Standout/Comparative Price screen (see Figure 3 below). Bear in
mind that the Bet Selector list is not based on the true odds of
a trifecta. A trifecta at 500/1 could be at the top of the list
as very likely to occur, while a trifecta at 50/1 may be at the
bottom as being unlikely. A trifecta at minimal odds which
features a short priced first pick in the third position is less
likely to occur, for example, than a short priced horse winning
with long shots running second and third and paying a
significantly higher dividend.
To dismiss sufficient unlikely trifectas so that you either
do not exceed your desired outlay, or those remaining trifectas
allow us to increase each trifecta bet without overstepping the
overall bet size, the Base prices of the top five horses that
are not win picks are reduced by a named percentage,
manufacturing the new Corresponding prices. Percentage
reductions can be entered on the Tote Pro screen with defaults
set at 0 and 25 percent respectively. For example, in a race
where there are thirteen or more starters and you have 84
possible trifectas, you would use Corresponding price reduction
to eliminate roughly 24 unlikely trifectas so that our outlay
would be about sixty dollars, assuming one dollar is bet on each
trifecta. If, after price reduction, there are fewer remaining
trifectas than the desired outlay, the Takeout can be increased
to raise the bet on the favoured combinations, until the
targeted amount is reached.
When you have completed the above, click on "Generate Bets"
to display individual trifecta combinations followed by the
amount to be bet and the true odds of that trifecta occurring.
At the foot of the final page is a label depicting the current
betting status for that race. It will show the number of
trifectas to be bet, followed by the total number of trifectas
possible, such as 50/60. The difference between these two
numbers is the number of combinations eliminated by the
Correlated Market. The dismissed trifectas are quoted as a
percentage of the trifecta number and the total outlay is then
displayed.
I have already mentioned that the Bet Selector Base odds are
used to estimate the chance of the horse finishing in each of
the nominated positions. When the Base price is short, Bet
Selector assumes this horse is unlikely to finish third and will
cancel most trifectas with it in that position. Occasionally you
will want to include such horses for third and do effect this
you must adjust the Base odds of such horses so that Bet
Selector knows your intent and does not cut it unmercifully from
third place. The odds of all horses should be policed vigorously
to ensure they convey your placing opinion to Bet Selector - if
not, winning trifectas may be needlessly scratched.
Peter Bent's articles on form analysis can be found at:
http://www.capitalinfo.com.au/peter-bent-form-analysis.html
Footnote: Tote Pro used to sell separately for $1,995 but is now free
as part of our demo program which you can request right now by clicking
the following link:
To get the free copy of
Tote Pro for trifecta system and trifecta betting click here.
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