Back in the early 90s our Ultimate Place Betting system used last minute win betting prices to predict first, second and third place probabilities and in turn the total predicted place chances. It then used these to target place bets predicted to have at least an 80% chance and at least 10% over the odds. Quite often this betting system identified horses predicted to be as short as $1.05 yet paying $1.20 or more - a massive overlay in percentage terms.
This method was successful because of its unique mathematics and the fact that punters shy away from short priced dividends. Not surprisingly it was independently reviewed by Punter's Choice as "matching claimed strike rates with consistent profits emerging" .The method of calculating place probabilities was part of our Place Odds Calculator software first released for $1,995 in 1995. It was reviewed by Punter's Choice as "an exciting product" and "capable of making accurate assessments of reasonably precise and profitable place odds".
The Ultimate Place Betting System had just two rules as follows:
If you don't want to monitor prices all day long then you could just use the first rule to pick runners with a higher strike rate that are more likely to always be over the odds. This can be achieved by reducing the true place div threshold to say $1.10 - equivalent to a predicted strike rate of around 90 percent or better (using $1.25 targeted 80% or better).
While the Place Odds Calculator software is no longer available, the same calculations are now incorporated in the Race Day Live part of our Bet Selector software - once you have collected betting data just select "Place" in the drop down next to the "Report" button and then click the "Report" button (you will find these controls in the lower left part of the Race Day Live window).
Note that a plus symbol (+) alongside a PLTRU price indicates those predicted to be less than or equal to $1.25. A plus symbol (+) alongside a PL2 price indicates those with current place prices greater than or equal to their predicted price.
Note also you can get Place Reports in the Price Predictor part of the program. If you use the default TAB order then the calculations are based on win betting prices but you also have the option of basing the calculations on rated prices by changing the order radio button to Main, Better or Plus.
Relatively new in System Selector Selector is the ability to test predicted place prices in Expert Mode. There are two variables for this as follows:
Note the above are not in the Expert Mode editor drop downs but can be typed in directly. For example if you want the predicted place price based on win betting prices to be less than $1.20 the rule would be:
PLCPREDSP<1.2
Note we do not have the final place dividends to do value analysis in System Selector but you can view them via the Place Report mentioned in the previous section.The place odds calculations were first described in our original Place Odds and Trifecta Report. The relevance to trifectas is that if you calculate trifecta probabilities as a function of first, second and third place probabilities you get a more accurate prediction compared to traditional methods. This report definitely worth reading if you have not got it already - you can get it by return email using the instructions in the box below.