Form Patterns and Winning Form Analysis

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The following articles are chapter extracts from Peter Bent's out-of-print book Form Analysis and Exotics Betting and The Thoroughbred and Exotics Betting and describe his winning form analysis and improver form patterns that are part of Bet Selector.

For information on Peter Bent's latest book What The Trainer Saw go to www.eyecatcherbooks.com

Winning Form Analysis

By careful observation of the past form we can calculate the number of days a horse is likely to remain in form. We must first look for a marker which signals the horse has reached its peak. The most obvious marker is a win or a finish within half a length of a winner. If the horse won again fourteen days later we can say that the horse held form for fourteen days and if the horse won again fourteen days after that, we can say the horse has now held form for twenty eight days. If the horse loses by two or three lengths fourteen days later, we know that form has subsided between twenty eight and forty two days after the first win and that the horse is now in the recovery phase.

We know that the horse will not completely lose form after the last win, but rather it will taper off over a number of days. This taper is assumed to be 7 days for horses up to four years, 10 days for five year olds and 12 days for six years and older. After more than three peak runs it is likely that this taper will reduce to 5 days for horses up to four years and 7 days for all others. So, if our horse is a four year old it will hold form for another seven days after the last win so the peak form period would be twenty eight plus seven equals thirty five days.

Fortunately Bet Selector has access to both past ratings and margins to do these calculations. Furthermore, if a horse won and then lost by a number of lengths when it raced again Bet Selector can check the rating for that run - if that rating is greater than, or no more than 1.5 kg less than the win rating, it is likely that the horse is still in form but was simply beaten by better horses on the day. Bet Selector works through past form for each horse as it imports the form to determine the longest period that the horse has remained in form.

The other half of the horses form cycle consists of the form recovery phase. In this phase it is the works between the win and the run proceeding the win that are crucial. We know that the run before the win brings the horse forward in condition and then it only needs a set number of works to bring it to a peak. The number of days between the proceeding run and the win is the number of days it will take to regain peak form after the form retention phase. To estimate this form recovery phase, you should find the most recent win which is preceded by an out of form run and select the number of days between these two starts.

As a result of the above considerations, Bet Selector defines the form cycle for each horse by reference to IN and OUT numbers as follows:

• IN. The number of days after the last start when the horse will reach peak form. If a negative number is displayed it indicates the number of days prior to the last start when the horse came into form.
• OUT. The number of days after the last start when the horse will move out of peak form and into the form recovery phase.

Once the above is known you can determine the position of the horse in the form cycle. Basically if the DAYS to last start falls within the IN and OUT numbers then the horse is in form.

Form Patterns

Crucial information on the Bet Selector form displays are the days between runs and the ratings for past races. The rating is a number depicting the performance level obtained in that particular race - the higher the rating, the better the run.

When a horse has enjoyed three or more runs after a spell or letup, ratings for each of these races begin to exhibit distinct form patterns. Bet Selector not only uses the last three starts to formulate a predicted rating for today's race, it also uses the form pattern displayed by these three ratings to determine a form bonus or penalty. This BASE rating and form bonus/penalty are combined to mould a net rating, used to predict the expected finishing position of each horse in the upcoming race.

Particular form patterns, occurring after three or more starts, often signal substantial improvement or failure at today's run. Bet Selector detects these important form patterns and informs the punter by way of a note in a Comment field. These patterns usually occur in the last three starts where there is no break of thirty two days or more between runs, indicating a let up or spell. When a let up or spell occurs, form patterns are ignored and horses are treated as "fresh"animals. Following is a description of these Very Important Patterns (VIP) detected by Bet Selector. Each VIP is identified primarily by the position of the highest, or "A", rating in the past three starts.

• Last Start Failure - (+). If the "A"rating occurs at the second last start and that second last start margin is no greater than 3.2 lengths, then the lower most recent rating (ST1) is deemed to be a Last Start Failure. The second last start margin may signal the horse is close to a peak run and Bet Selector will now subject this horse to further scrutiny to determine the likelihood of a full recovery from such a failure at this most recent run.
• Last Start Failure - (++). If the "A"rating occurs at the second last start and the horse either won or lost by no more than 1.5 lengths, the lower most recent rating is deemed to be a failure. In this pattern, if the fourth last rating (ST4) is lower than the third last rating (ST3),the horse is awarded a further form bonus
• Declining Form. If the "A"rating occurs at the third last start, the second highest rating at the second last start and the lowest rating at the most recent run, the horse is said to be in a declining pattern which may lead to dramatic improvement or continued failure.
• Return To Form. If the most recent rating is 10 kg. (or more) greater than either the second or third last start rating and the most recent margin is no greater than 1.5 lengths, the horse may soon return to peak form.
• Last Start 'Win'. If the horse is a last start winner over today's race distance, it will improve this run. If the horse lost last start by 0.1 - 1.0 lengths over the same distance as today's race and the horse is now in winning form, it may also improve. It, too, is the recipient of this comment. Bet Selector will not note this VIP if the horse won both its last two starts because it fears this horse may not hold form.
• More Suitable Distance. Bet Selector compares the most recent start race distance with the career wins. If the horse has not won over this race distance or further and is now returning to a more suitable distance, this comment is made. However, if this last start run is the final run in a Declining Form Pattern, take care. Failure may not be caused by unsuitable distance but by lost form.
• Last Start Improver. When the "A"rating occurs at the third last start and the second highest rating at the most recent start, the horse may repeat the "A"rating in the upcoming run. To judge this, Bet Selector compares ST5 and ST4, the lead up to the ST3 "A"rating, with ST2 and ST1. If it notes a similar pattern, Bet Selector may conclude that the "A"rating is likely to be repeated today and the Last Start Improver note is made.

You should know there are times when a horse may simultaneously comply with two or more of the above patterns. Bet Selector looks for each pattern in a set order and notes the first form pattern on its list where the horse qualifies as an improver. When Bet Selector's form analysis (or the punter) notes one of the aforementioned form patterns, the horse in question is now subjected to further scrutiny. As a result, Bet Selector (or the punter) may take steps to increase or decrease the net rating. Central to any net rating change is the use of the IMPROVER box situated on the Data Edit Screen. There are four Improver entries:

• Blank - Default setting. The net rating is set using a percentage of each of the last three ratings and a form bonus up to 2kg., depending upon the form pattern.
• Y - Yes. This horse will improve substantially. The net rating uses the "A"rating as the BASE and awards a form bonus up to 4kg depending upon the pattern.
• "+"- Plus. We expect the horse to enjoy spectacular improvement and rate close to its peak today. The form bonus is a high percentage of the difference between the Base rating and the PkD and can be quite substantial.
• N - No. This horse is likely to fail at its next start and is awarded a form penalty of 2kg. And may lower the BASE considerably, depending upon the pattern.

After Bet Selector applies its form analysis to determine the form pattern and enters the appropriate Improver response, it will notify the punter of its action by way of a tag in the form Comment box. These "tags"are:

• Should Improve. Bet Selector will make this comment if the horse is deemed suited to today's race distance and the horse has winning form status. Bet Selector usually sets Improver to Y for these horses and uses the "A" rating as the BASE. However, you may occasionally sight IMP: ? indicating that the "A"rating has passed the previous PKD (peak distance rating) raising doubt about whether the horse can repeat the "A"rating over today's distance. In such cases Bet Selector downgrades the BASE and form bonus. Note if the VIP noted is Last Start "Win"and the last start track condition differs from today then the horse may not repeat the last start "A"rating and you may need to downgrade the Improver setting.
• Won't Improve (D). Bet Selector will make this comment if the horse has never finished within 0.5 lengths over today's race distance or further. As the "A"rating is unlikely to be reproduced, Bet Selector downgrades the Improver setting to Maybe (blank) or No depending upon how badly the horse is likely to be affected by the upcoming race distance. If the horse has never won or finished within half a length of the winner over today's race distance but the In-Running suggests it will make the trip (DIST: y), hen the Improver setting remains blank. However, if Bet Selector believes this distance is too far (DIST: blank or N) then the Improver setting will be set to No and a 2kg form penalty applied.
• Won't Improve (M). This comment is made when the margin last start was more than 14 lengths. After such a poor showing, the horse is unlikely to repeat the "A"rating today. However, if the failure was caused by unsuitable track conditions or the horse has displayed similar poor runs in the past and rated highly next start, you may wish to change the Improver setting to Yes. This may also apply when the horse raced last start up to 1200M at Flemington or Victoria Park as some horses are not comfortable racing down the straight at these tracks and so race well below their par.
• But No Winning Form. After noting a form pattern, Bet Selector will assess likely improvement by first checking the current winning form status. If the horse will not be in form for the upcoming race, it is unlikely to repeat the "A"rating. Thus the Improver setting is left blank or downgraded to No if it has not won over the distance. Either setting lowers the BASE and net rating and is signalled by the "No Winning Form"comment. Always check the winning form status when this tag appears, as Bet Selector adjudicates Form Retention by margin only and it is possible that a reassessment based on ratings could lead you to change the Winning Form entry on the Date Edit screen.

Peter Bent's articles on exotics betting can be found at:

http://www.capitalinfo.com.au/peter-bent-exotics-betting.html

For a free e-book containing 135 free racing systems plus free horse racing tips during racing carnivals and a free version of Bet Selector, just send an email with the word "free" in the subject line to demo@capitalinfo.com.au